Assessing Whether ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc ADR (NYSE: ZTO) Is Over- Or Undervalued

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc ADR (ZTO) concluded trading on Wednesday at a closing price of $18.99, with 3.92 million shares of worth about $74.46 million changed hands on the day. Half year performance of the stock remained negative as price took a plunge of -19.50% during that period and on Wednesday the price saw a gain of about 0.74%. Currently the company’s common shares owned by public are about 609.17M shares, out of which, 595.01M shares are available for trading.

Stock saw a price change of 9.14% in past 5 days and over the past one month there was a price change of 12.50%. Year-to-date (YTD), ZTO shares are showing a performance of -10.76% which decreased to -23.08% when we look at its performance for past 12 months. Over the period of past 52 weeks, stock dropped to lowest price of $15.90 but also hit the highest price of $30.05 during that period. The average intraday trading volume for ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc ADR shares is 3.32 million. The stock is currently trading 9.76% above its 20-day simple moving average (SMA20), while that difference is up 1.01% for SMA50 and it goes to -19.73% lower than SMA200.

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc ADR (NYSE: ZTO) currently have 609.17M outstanding shares and institutions hold larger chunk of about 42.80% of that.

The stock has a current market capitalization of $11.37B and its 3Y-monthly beta is at -0.08. PE ratio of stock for trailing 12 months is 12.84, while it has posted earnings per share of $1.48 in the same period. Its PEG reads 0.78 and has Quick Ratio of 1.13 while making debt-to-equity ratio of 0.30. Volatility of a stock is a metric used to know how much the price of that stock is under influence and for ZTO, volatility over the week remained 2.34% while standing at 2.94% over the month.

Analysts are in expectations that ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc ADR (ZTO) stock would likely to be making an EPS of $0.37 in the current quarter, while forecast for next quarter EPS is $0.35 and it is $1.74 for next year. For the current quarter EPS, analysts have given the company a lowest target $0.35 which is $0.38 at the higher side of the target for the same. When we compare those targets with actual EPS, we find that company posted an EPS of $0.38 in the same quarter a year ago. Stock’s fiscal year EPS is expected to rise by 31.29% while it is estimated to increase by 16.26% in next year. EPS is likely to shrink at an annualized rate of 16.50% for next 5-years, compared to annual growth of 17.08% made by the stock over the past 5-years.

Digging deeper we find that several firms have released their research notes about the support levels of the stock. Most recent of them is a note released by BofA Securities on November 07, 2023 offering a Neutral rating for the stock and assigned a target price range of between $34 and $28 to it. Coverage by Goldman stated ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc ADR (ZTO) stock as a Buy in their note to investors on April 25, 2023, suggesting a price target of $42 for the stock. On March 16, 2023, CLSA Upgrade their recommendations, while on August 19, 2022, JP Morgan Upgrade their ratings for the stock with a price target of $35. Stock get an Outperform rating from Macquarie on November 18, 2021.

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