American Airlines Group Inc (AAL): Street Finally Waking Up

The Vanguard Group, Inc. recently announced the acquisition of new stake in American Airlines Group Inc (NASDAQ:AAL). The institutional investor has increased its shareholding in the Industrials company by 0.79% to 76.88 million shares with purchase of 0.61 million shares. This fresh investment now brings its stake to 11.76% valued currently at $1.06 billion. In addition, BlackRock Fund Advisors raised its holdings by 0.47 million to 31.73 million shares. And Renaissance Technologies LLC has lifted its position by 31.13% or 5.33 million shares – to 22.43 million shares.

With over 79.86 million American Airlines Group Inc (AAL) shares trading Friday and a closing price of $13.21 on the day, the dollar volume was approximately $1.05 billion. The shares have shown a negative half year performance of -27.18% and its price on 01/12/24 lost nearly -9.46%. Currently, there are 650.64M common shares owned by the public and among those 643.77M shares have been available to trade.

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An analysis of what Wall Street brokers have to say about the expected price targets for this stock gives us this picture: 21 analysts who have offered their price forecasts for AAL have a consensus price objective of $15.33. The analysts have set the share’s price value over the next 12 months at a high of $20.00 and a low of $10.00. The average price target is 13.83% above its recent price level and a downside to the estimated low will see the stock lose -32.1% over that period. But an upside of 33.95% will see the stock hit the forecast high price target while median target price for the stock is $14.50.

Insiders at the company have transacted a total of 54 times over the past 12 months, according to data filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). 23 of these insider trades were purchases, accounting for 3,034,596 shares. Insider sales of the common stock occurred on 31 occasions, with total insider shares sold totaling 469,973 shares.

The top 3 mutual fund holders in American Airlines Group Inc are Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF, Vanguard PRIMECAP Fund, and Vanguard Small Cap Index Fund. Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF owns 20.37 million shares of the company’s stock, all valued at over $279.83 million. The company bought an additional 18189.0 shares recently to bring their total holdings to about 3.12% of the shares outstanding. Vanguard Small Cap Index Fund bought 75123.0 shares to bring its total holdings to over 16.93 million shares at a value of $232.58 million. Vanguard Small Cap Index Fund now owns shares totaling to 2.59% of the shares outstanding.

Shares of American Airlines Group Inc (NASDAQ: AAL) opened at $13.93, down -$0.66 from a prior closing price of $14.59. However, the script later moved the day high at 13.98, down -9.46%. The company’s stock has a 5-day price change of -2.87% and 9.54% over the past three months. AAL shares are trading -3.86% year to date (YTD), with the 12-month market performance down to -13.89% lower. It has a 12-month low price of $10.86 and touched a high of $19.08 over the same period. AAL has an average intraday trading volume of 36.16 million shares. The stock is trading above its simple moving averages at the SMA20, SMA50, and SMA200, as the current price level is off by -6.03%, 1.10%, and -7.18% respectively.

Institutional ownership of American Airlines Group Inc (NASDAQ: AAL) shares accounts for 59.63% of the company’s 650.64M shares outstanding. Mutual fund holders own 25.90%, while other institutional holders and individual stakeholders account for 33.85% and 1.97% respectively.

It has a market capitalization of $8.63B and a beta (3y monthly) value of 1.56. The stock’s trailing 12-month PE ratio is 6.06, while the earnings-per-share (ttm) stands at $2.18. Price movements for the stock have been influenced by the stock’s volatility, which stands at 3.34% over the week and 2.57% over the month.

Analysts forecast that American Airlines Group Inc (AAL) will achieve an EPS of $0.1 for the current quarter, -$0.19 for the next quarter and $2.27 for 2024. The lowest estimate earnings-per-share for the quarter is $0 while analysts give the company a high EPS estimate of $0.3. Comparatively, EPS for the current quarter was $1.17 a year ago. Earnings per share for the fiscal year are expected to increase by 390.83%, and -14.56% over the next financial year.

If you are looking to buy this stock, then you may note that the average analyst recommendation by 21 brokerage firm advisors rate American Airlines Group Inc (AAL) as a “Moderate Buy” at a consensus score of 2.67. Specifically, 4 Wall Street analysts polled rate the stock as a buy, while 13 of the 21 advise that investors “hold,” and 1 rated it as a “Sell.”

Looking at the support for the AAL, a number of firms have released research notes about the stock. Jefferies stated their Buy rating for the stock in a research note on January 11, 2024, with the firm’s price target at $18.

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