Reassessing The Changing Outlook For Gray Television, Inc. (GTN)

Darsana Capital Partners LP recently announced the acquisition of new stake in Gray Television, Inc. (NYSE:GTN). The institutional investor has increased its shareholding in the Communication Services company by 336.79% to 4.0 million shares with purchase of 3.08 million shares. This fresh investment now brings its stake to 4.58% valued currently at $35.84 million. In addition, The Capital Management Corp. raised its holdings by 0.2 million to 2.43 million shares. And Charles Schwab Investment Managem has lifted its position by 23.11% or 0.39 million shares – to 2.06 million shares.

With over 0.48 million Gray Television, Inc. (GTN) shares trading Friday and a closing price of $9.18 on the day, the dollar volume was approximately $4.44 million. The shares have shown a positive half year performance of 4.08% and its price on 01/12/24 lost nearly -0.43%. Currently, there are 85.47M common shares owned by the public and among those 82.27M shares have been available to trade.

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An analysis of what Wall Street brokers have to say about the expected price targets for this stock gives us this picture: 8 analysts who have offered their price forecasts for GTN have a consensus price objective of $12.88. The analysts have set the share’s price value over the next 12 months at a high of $20.00 and a low of $5.00. The average price target is 28.73% above its recent price level and a downside to the estimated low will see the stock lose -83.6% over that period. But an upside of 54.1% will see the stock hit the forecast high price target while median target price for the stock is $12.00.

Insiders at the company have transacted a total of 29 times over the past 12 months, according to data filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). 18 of these insider trades were purchases, accounting for 1,654,877 shares. Insider sales of the common stock occurred on 11 occasions, with total insider shares sold totaling 171,671 shares.

The top 3 mutual fund holders in Gray Television, Inc. are Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF, iShares Russell 2000 ETF, and Schwab Fundamental US Small Compa. Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF owns 2.62 million shares of the company’s stock, all valued at over $23.5 million. iShares Russell 2000 ETF sold 6462.0 shares to see its total holdings shrink to 2.44 million shares valued at over $21.87 million and representing 2.80% of the shares outstanding. Schwab Fundamental US Small Compa sold 409.0 shares to bring its total holdings to over 1.14 million shares at a value of $10.26 million. Schwab Fundamental US Small Compa now owns shares totaling to 1.31% of the shares outstanding.

Shares of Gray Television, Inc. (NYSE: GTN) opened at $9.33, up $0.11 from a prior closing price of $9.22. However, the script later moved the day high at 9.53, down -0.43%. The company’s stock has a 5-day price change of 2.68% and 51.99% over the past three months. GTN shares are trading 2.46% year to date (YTD), with the 12-month market performance down to -22.40% lower. It has a 12-month low price of $5.97 and touched a high of $14.40 over the same period. GTN has an average intraday trading volume of 1.06 million shares. The stock is trading above its simple moving averages at the SMA20, SMA50, and SMA200, as the current price level is off by 2.89%, 12.25%, and 16.80% respectively.

Institutional ownership of Gray Television, Inc. (NYSE: GTN) shares accounts for 77.67% of the company’s 85.47M shares outstanding. Mutual fund holders own 34.07%, while other institutional holders and individual stakeholders account for 50.91% and 13.74% respectively.

It has a market capitalization of $876.23M and a beta (3y monthly) value of 1.70. The stock’s trailing 12-month PE ratio is 12.48, while the earnings-per-share (ttm) stands at $0.74. The company has a PEG of 0.34 and a Quick Ratio of 1.13 with the debt-to-equity ratio at 2.36. Price movements for the stock have been influenced by the stock’s volatility, which stands at 3.38% over the week and 4.28% over the month.

Analysts forecast that Gray Television, Inc. (GTN) will achieve an EPS of -$0.17 for the current quarter, $0.16 for the next quarter and $4.22 for 2024. The lowest estimate earnings-per-share for the quarter is -$0.25 while analysts give the company a high EPS estimate of -$0.03. Comparatively, EPS for the current quarter was $1.88 a year ago. Earnings per share for the fiscal year are expected to decrease by -126.92%, and 460.42% over the next financial year. EPS should grow at an annualized rate of 36.90% over the next five years, compared to 4.08% over the past 5-year period.

If you are looking to buy this stock, then you may note that the average analyst recommendation by 8 brokerage firm advisors rate Gray Television, Inc. (GTN) as a “Moderate Buy” at a consensus score of 2.25. Specifically, 5 Wall Street analysts polled rate the stock as a buy, while 1 of the 8 advise that investors “hold,” and 2 rated it as a “Sell.”

Looking at the support for the GTN, a number of firms have released research notes about the stock. Wells Fargo stated their Underweight rating for the stock in a research note on November 09, 2022, with the firm’s price target at $25-$7.

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