Assessing Whether ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc ADR (NYSE: ZTO) Is Over- Or Undervalued

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc ADR (ZTO) concluded trading on 01/10/24 at a closing price of $19.13, with 3.41 million shares of worth about $65.16 million changed hands on the day. Half year performance of the stock remained negative as price took a plunge of -28.35% during that period and on Wednesday the price saw a loss of about -1.90%. Currently the company’s common shares owned by public are about 609.17M shares, out of which, 598.58M shares are available for trading.

A deeper look into what the analysts at Wall Street are thinking about the price target of this stock provides us with the following: 24 analysts are covering the ZTO stock and their offered price forecasts bring an average price target of $250.82. Over the next 12 months, analysts forecasted that the stock’s price could jump as high as $309.00 and could fall to a lowest price of $203.05. The stock’s current price level is 40.79% above of average price target set by the analysts, while a rise to estimated low would result in gain of 90.58% for the stock. However, touching the estimated high of $309.00 would mean a gain of 93.81% for the stock.

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc ADR (NYSE: ZTO) started trading at $19.46, below -$0.04 from concluding price of the previous day. However, the stock later moved at a day high price of 19.54, or with a loss of -1.90%. Stock saw a price change of -9.16% in past 5 days and over the past one month there was a price change of -10.23%. Year-to-date (YTD), ZTO shares are showing a performance of -10.10% which decreased to -30.84% when we look at its performance for past 12 months. Over the period of past 52 weeks, stock dropped to lowest price of $19.33 but also hit the highest price of $30.05 during that period. The average intraday trading volume for ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc ADR shares is 2.80 million. The stock is currently trading -5.82% below its 20-day simple moving average (SMA20), while that difference is down -12.76% for SMA50 and it goes to -23.92% lower than SMA200.

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc ADR (NYSE: ZTO) currently have 609.17M outstanding shares and institutions hold larger chunk of about 44.95% of that.

The stock has a current market capitalization of $11.45B and its 3Y-monthly beta is at -0.06. PE ratio of stock for trailing 12 months is 12.93, while it has posted earnings per share of $1.48 in the same period. Its PEG reads 0.77 and has Quick Ratio of 1.13 while making debt-to-equity ratio of 0.30. Volatility of a stock is a metric used to know how much the price of that stock is under influence and for ZTO, volatility over the week remained 2.33% while standing at 2.35% over the month.

Analysts are in expectations that ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc ADR (ZTO) stock would likely to be making an EPS of $0.38 in the current quarter, while forecast for next quarter EPS is $0.37 and it is $1.76 for next year. For the current quarter EPS, analysts have given the company a lowest target $0.36 which is $0.4 at the higher side of the target for the same. When we compare those targets with actual EPS, we find that company posted an EPS of $0.38 in the same quarter a year ago. Stock’s fiscal year EPS is expected to rise by 31.74% while it is estimated to increase by 16.79% in next year. EPS is likely to shrink at an annualized rate of 16.70% for next 5-years, compared to annual growth of 17.08% made by the stock over the past 5-years.

Analysts at 24 brokerage firms have issued recommendations for the ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc ADR (ZTO)’s stock and average of those rates the stock at a “Strong Buy” and assign it a score of 1.25. Out of those 24 Wall Street analysts, 21 recommended a “Buy” rating, while 1 were in favor recommending the stock as a “Hold” and 0 analyst recommended the stock as “Sell”.

Digging deeper we find that several firms have released their research notes about the support levels of the stock. Most recent of them is a note released by BofA Securities on November 07, 2023 offering a Neutral rating for the stock and assigned a target price range of between $34 and $28 to it.

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