Reassessing The Changing Outlook For Air Transport Services Group Inc (ATSG)

The Vanguard Group, Inc. recently announced the acquisition of new stake in Air Transport Services Group Inc (NASDAQ:ATSG). The institutional investor has increased its shareholding in the Industrials company by 1.72% to 6.26 million shares with purchase of 0.11 million shares. This fresh investment now brings its stake to 9.59% valued currently at $99.56 million. In addition, Dimensional Fund Advisors LP raised its holdings by 0.27 million to 3.84 million shares. And Fidelity Management & Research Co has lifted its position by 0.02% or 360.0 shares – to 1.52 million shares.

With over 0.48 million Air Transport Services Group Inc (ATSG) shares trading Friday and a closing price of $17.61 on the day, the dollar volume was approximately $8.41 million. The shares have shown a negative half year performance of -6.68% and its price on 12/29/23 lost nearly -0.40%. Currently, there are 72.33M common shares owned by the public and among those 50.68M shares have been available to trade.

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An analysis of what Wall Street brokers have to say about the expected price targets for this stock gives us this picture: 7 analysts who have offered their price forecasts for ATSG have a consensus price objective of $22.71. The analysts have set the share’s price value over the next 12 months at a high of $27.00 and a low of $15.00. The average price target is 22.46% above its recent price level and a downside to the estimated low will see the stock lose -17.4% over that period. But an upside of 34.78% will see the stock hit the forecast high price target while median target price for the stock is $24.00.

Insiders at the company have transacted a total of 88 times over the past 12 months, according to data filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). 68 of these insider trades were purchases, accounting for 336,896 shares. Insider sales of the common stock occurred on 20 occasions, with total insider shares sold totaling 1,263,786 shares.

The top 3 mutual fund holders in Air Transport Services Group Inc are Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF, US Global Jets ETF, and Vanguard Small Cap Index Fund. Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF owns 2.11 million shares of the company’s stock, all valued at over $33.52 million. The company bought an additional 4574.0 shares recently to bring their total holdings to about 3.23% of the shares outstanding. US Global Jets ETF bought 51156.0 shares to see its total holdings expand to 1.74 million shares valued at over $27.7 million and representing 2.67% of the shares outstanding. Vanguard Small Cap Index Fund bought 5320.0 shares to bring its total holdings to over 1.74 million shares at a value of $27.69 million. Vanguard Small Cap Index Fund now owns shares totaling to 2.67% of the shares outstanding.

Shares of Air Transport Services Group Inc (NASDAQ: ATSG) opened at $17.60, down -$0.08 from a prior closing price of $17.68. However, the script later moved the day high at 17.74, down -0.40%. The company’s stock has a 5-day price change of 4.14% and -15.62% over the past three months. ATSG shares are trading -32.22% year to date (YTD), with the 12-month market performance down to -32.63% lower. It has a 12-month low price of $14.03 and touched a high of $28.70 over the same period. ATSG has an average intraday trading volume of 681.93K shares. The stock is trading above its simple moving averages at the SMA20, SMA50, and SMA200, as the current price level is off by 7.51%, 3.42%, and -8.13% respectively.

Institutional ownership of Air Transport Services Group Inc (NASDAQ: ATSG) shares accounts for 79.19% of the company’s 72.33M shares outstanding. Mutual fund holders own 41.83%, while other institutional holders and individual stakeholders account for 69.45% and 39.25% respectively.

It has a market capitalization of $1.15B and a beta (3y monthly) value of 0.89. The stock’s trailing 12-month PE ratio is 11.94, while the earnings-per-share (ttm) stands at $1.47. The company has a PEG of 23.88 and a Quick Ratio of 0.80 with the debt-to-equity ratio at 1.30. Price movements for the stock have been influenced by the stock’s volatility, which stands at 1.96% over the week and 3.07% over the month.

Analysts forecast that Air Transport Services Group Inc (ATSG) will achieve an EPS of $0.28 for the current quarter, $0.32 for the next quarter and $1.62 for 2024. The lowest estimate earnings-per-share for the quarter is $0.23 while analysts give the company a high EPS estimate of $0.39. Comparatively, EPS for the current quarter was $0.53 a year ago. Earnings per share for the fiscal year are expected to decrease by -32.27%, and 4.81% over the next financial year. EPS should shrink at an annualized rate of 0.50% over the next five years, compared to 48.64% over the past 5-year period.

If you are looking to buy this stock, then you may note that the average analyst recommendation by 7 brokerage firm advisors rate Air Transport Services Group Inc (ATSG) as a “Strong Buy” at a consensus score of 1.57. Specifically, 5 Wall Street analysts polled rate the stock as a buy, while 2 of the 7 advise that investors “hold,” and 0 rated it as a “Sell.”

Looking at the support for the ATSG, a number of firms have released research notes about the stock. Susquehanna stated their Neutral rating for the stock in a research note on November 08, 2023, with the firm’s price target at $26-$15.

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