Assessing Whether American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (NYSE: AEO) Is Over- Or Undervalued

The Vanguard Group, Inc. has recently announced that it has increased stake in American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (NYSE:AEO) by 0.25%. After grabbing 20.09 million shares, the institutional investor is now in possession of 50302.0 shares of the Consumer Cyclical Company. The new investment brought the stake of investor firm to 10.17% having worth around $382.28 million. Moreover, Dimensional Fund Advisors LP increased its share by 0.18 million to have a control over 10.72 million shares. And Candlestick Capital Management LP raised its holdings to 4.82 million shares by acquiring 4.82 million shares or 2.44% of the stake.

American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO) concluded trading on 12/27/23 at a closing price of $21.31, with 3.14 million shares of worth about $66.99 million changed hands on the day. Half year performance of the stock remained positive as price took a surge of 84.66% during that period and on Wednesday the price saw a gain of about 0.57%. Currently the company’s common shares owned by public are about 195.06M shares, out of which, 181.07M shares are available for trading.

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A deeper look into what the analysts at Wall Street are thinking about the price target of this stock provides us with the following: 12 analysts are covering the AEO stock and their offered price forecasts bring an average price target of $18.64. Over the next 12 months, analysts forecasted that the stock’s price could jump as high as $24.00 and could fall to a lowest price of $13.00. The stock’s current price level is -14.32% below of average price target set by the analysts, while a dip to estimated low would result in loss of -63.92% for the stock. However, touching the estimated high of $24.00 would mean a gain of 11.21% for the stock.

According to filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), insiders took part in trade of the company’s stock for 86 times over the past 12 months. They bought 865,494 shares in 47 of the transactions. In 39 selling transactions, insiders dumped 474,666 shares.

iShares Core S&P Small Cap ETF, Fidelity Blue Chip Growth Fund, and Pacer Fds. Tr. – US Small Cap Cas are the top 3 mutual funds which are holding stakes in American Eagle Outfitters Inc. iShares Core S&P Small Cap ETF is currently holding 12.42 million shares of worth totaling $236.35 million. The company recently came buying 5784.0 shares which brought its stake up to 6.29% of the company’s outstanding shares. Fidelity Blue Chip Growth Fund sold 18990.0 shares, after which its hold over company’s outstanding shares shrunk to 5.61%, leaving 11.09 million shares with the mutual fund that have a worth of about $210.98 million. Pacer Fds. Tr. – US Small Cap Cas, after buying 6.41 million shares, have now control over 3.24% of the stake in the company. It holds 76589.0 shares of worth $121.96 million.

American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (NYSE: AEO) started trading at $21.26, above $0.07 from concluding price of the previous day. Stock saw a price change of 2.01% in past 5 days and over the past one month there was a price change of 23.68%. Year-to-date (YTD), AEO shares are showing a performance of 52.65% which increased to 46.06% when we look at its performance for past 12 months. Over the period of past 52 weeks, stock dropped to lowest price of $9.95 but also hit the highest price of $21.49 during that period. The average intraday trading volume for American Eagle Outfitters Inc. shares is 5.08 million. The stock is currently trading 5.84% above its 20-day simple moving average (SMA20), while that difference is up 12.91% for SMA50 and it goes to 41.55% higher than SMA200.

The Vanguard Group, Inc. acquired 20.09 million shares of American Eagle Outfitters Inc. having value of about $382.28 million. Data submitted at the U.S SEC by The Vanguard Group, Inc. revealed that the firm now holds 50302.0 shares in the company valued at close to $1071935.62, or have control over 0.25% stake in the company. American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (NYSE: AEO) currently have 195.06M outstanding shares and institutions hold larger chunk of about 91.61% of that. Holding of mutual funds in the company is about 35.06% while other institutional holders and individual stake holders have control over 58.84% and 17.39% of the stake respectively.

The stock has a current market capitalization of $4.21B and its 3Y-monthly beta is at 1.53. PE ratio of stock for trailing 12 months is 19.24, while it has posted earnings per share of $1.11 in the same period. Its PEG reads 1.04 and has Quick Ratio of 0.70 while making debt-to-equity ratio of 0.70. Volatility of a stock is a metric used to know how much the price of that stock is under influence and for AEO, volatility over the week remained 2.29% while standing at 3.23% over the month.

Analysts are in expectations that American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO) stock would likely to be making an EPS of $0.43 in the current quarter, while forecast for next quarter EPS is $0.21 and it is $1.47 for next year. For the current quarter EPS, analysts have given the company a lowest target $0.41 which is $0.45 at the higher side of the target for the same. When we compare those targets with actual EPS, we find that company posted an EPS of $0.37 in the same quarter a year ago. Stock’s fiscal year EPS is expected to rise by 38.36% while it is estimated to increase by 9.91% in next year. EPS is likely to grow at an annualized rate of 18.42% for next 5-years, compared to annual growth of -10.85% made by the stock over the past 5-years.

Analysts at 12 brokerage firms have issued recommendations for the American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO)’s stock and average of those rates the stock at a “Moderate Buy” and assign it a score of 2.75. Out of those 12 Wall Street analysts, 2 recommended a “Buy” rating, while 8 were in favor recommending the stock as a “Hold” and 1 analyst recommended the stock as “Sell”.

Digging deeper we find that several firms have released their research notes about the support levels of the stock. Most recent of them is a note released by BofA Securities on November 15, 2023 offering a Neutral rating for the stock and assigned a target price range of between $12.50 and $19 to it.

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