Upstart Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: UPST): Hunting Genuine Value In Market Debris

The Vanguard Group, Inc. recently announced the acquisition of new stake in Upstart Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:UPST). The institutional investor has increased its shareholding in the Financial company by 1.28% to 6.65 million shares with purchase of 84002.0 shares. This fresh investment now brings its stake to 7.92% valued currently at $159.74 million. In addition, D. E. Shaw & Co. LP raised its holdings by 2.79 million to 2.82 million shares. And Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC has lifted its position by 75.21% or 0.76 million shares – to 1.76 million shares.

With over 13.68 million Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST) shares trading Friday and a closing price of $36.92 on the day, the dollar volume was approximately $505.09 million. The shares have shown a positive half year performance of 15.05% and its price on 12/08/23 gained nearly 9.01%. Currently, there are 81.26M common shares owned by the public and among those 72.19M shares have been available to trade.

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An analysis of what Wall Street brokers have to say about the expected price targets for this stock gives us this picture: 18 analysts who have offered their price forecasts for UPST have a consensus price objective of $20.13. The analysts have set the share’s price value over the next 12 months at a high of $36.00 and a low of $6.00. The average price target is -83.41% below its recent price level and a downside to the estimated low will see the stock lose -515.33% over that period. But a downside of -2.56% will see the stock hit the forecast high price target while median target price for the stock is $19.50.

Insiders at the company have transacted a total of 120 times over the past 12 months, according to data filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). 50 of these insider trades were purchases, accounting for 845,559 shares. Insider sales of the common stock occurred on 70 occasions, with total insider shares sold totaling 293,774 shares.

The top 3 mutual fund holders in Upstart Holdings Inc are Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF, Vanguard Small Cap Index Fund, and iShares Russell 2000 ETF. Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF owns 2.23 million shares of the company’s stock, all valued at over $53.65 million. The company bought an additional 30354.0 shares recently to bring their total holdings to about 2.66% of the shares outstanding. Vanguard Small Cap Index Fund bought 888.0 shares to see its total holdings expand to 1.84 million shares valued at over $44.17 million and representing 2.19% of the shares outstanding. iShares Russell 2000 ETF sold 16815.0 shares to bring its total holdings to over 1.67 million shares at a value of $40.2 million. iShares Russell 2000 ETF now owns shares totaling to 1.99% of the shares outstanding.

Shares of Upstart Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: UPST) opened at $33.66, down -$0.21 from a prior closing price of $33.87. However, the script later moved the day high at 37.47, up 9.01%. The company’s stock has a 5-day price change of 14.06% and 22.41% over the past three months. UPST shares are trading 179.27% year to date (YTD), with the 12-month market performance up to 118.98% higher. It has a 12-month low price of $11.93 and touched a high of $72.58 over the same period. UPST has an average intraday trading volume of 6.26 million shares. The stock is trading above its simple moving averages at the SMA20, SMA50, and SMA200, as the current price level is off by 38.37%, 38.73%, and 30.42% respectively.

Institutional ownership of Upstart Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: UPST) shares accounts for 46.07% of the company’s 81.26M shares outstanding. Mutual fund holders own 25.26%, while other institutional holders and individual stakeholders account for 27.28% and 20.10% respectively.

It has a market capitalization of $3.14B and a beta (3y monthly) value of 1.97. The earnings-per-share (ttm) stands at -$3.07. Price movements for the stock have been influenced by the stock’s volatility, which stands at 9.66% over the week and 9.12% over the month.

Analysts forecast that Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST) will achieve an EPS of -$0.14 for the current quarter, $0 for the next quarter and $0.18 for 2024. The lowest estimate earnings-per-share for the quarter is -$0.17 while analysts give the company a high EPS estimate of -$0.08. Comparatively, EPS for the current quarter was -$0.25 a year ago. Earnings per share for the fiscal year are expected to decrease by -376.92%, and 129.97% over the next financial year. EPS should grow at an annualized rate of 30.00% over the next five years, compared to -65.64% over the past 5-year period.

If you are looking to buy this stock, then you may note that the average analyst recommendation by 18 brokerage firm advisors rate Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST) as a “Hold” at a consensus score of 3.94. Specifically, 1 Wall Street analysts polled rate the stock as a buy, while 7 of the 18 advise that investors “hold,” and 9 rated it as a “Sell.”

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