Reassessing The Changing Outlook For Arbor Realty Trust Inc. (ABR)

BlackRock Fund Advisors recently announced the acquisition of new stake in Arbor Realty Trust Inc. (NYSE:ABR). The institutional investor has increased its shareholding in the Real Estate company by 2.69% to 22.67 million shares with purchase of 0.59 million shares. This fresh investment now brings its stake to 12.02% valued currently at $285.81 million. In addition, The Vanguard Group, Inc. raised its holdings by 0.72 million to 18.32 million shares. And SSgA Funds Management, Inc. has lifted its position by 2.65% or 0.18 million shares – to 6.87 million shares.

With over 5.43 million Arbor Realty Trust Inc. (ABR) shares trading Tuesday and a closing price of $12.19 on the day, the dollar volume was approximately $66.23 million. The shares have shown a negative half year performance of -2.87% and its price on 11/21/23 lost nearly -1.69%. Currently, there are 188.50M common shares owned by the public and among those 181.95M shares have been available to trade.

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An analysis of what Wall Street brokers have to say about the expected price targets for this stock gives us this picture: 6 analysts who have offered their price forecasts for ABR have a consensus price objective of $15.42. The analysts have set the share’s price value over the next 12 months at a high of $19.00 and a low of $12.50. The average price target is 20.95% above its recent price level and an upside to the estimated low will see the stock gain 2.48% over that period. But an upside of 35.84% will see the stock hit the forecast high price target while median target price for the stock is $15.50.

Insiders at the company have transacted a total of 51 times over the past 12 months, according to data filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). 23 of these insider trades were purchases, accounting for 621,396 shares. Insider sales of the common stock occurred on 28 occasions, with total insider shares sold totaling 425,322 shares.

The top 3 mutual fund holders in Arbor Realty Trust Inc. are iShares Core S&P Small Cap ETF, Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF, and Vanguard Small Cap Index Fund. iShares Core S&P Small Cap ETF owns 9.79 million shares of the company’s stock, all valued at over $123.4 million. The company bought an additional 0.11 million shares recently to bring their total holdings to about 5.19% of the shares outstanding. Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF bought 10813.0 shares to see its total holdings expand to 4.82 million shares valued at over $60.81 million and representing 2.56% of the shares outstanding. Vanguard Small Cap Index Fund bought 2100.0 shares to bring its total holdings to over 3.82 million shares at a value of $48.22 million. Vanguard Small Cap Index Fund now owns shares totaling to 2.03% of the shares outstanding.

Shares of Arbor Realty Trust Inc. (NYSE: ABR) opened at $12.36, down -$0.04 from a prior closing price of $12.40. However, the script later moved the day high at 12.54, down -1.69%. The company’s stock has a 5-day price change of -11.02% and -20.53% over the past three months. ABR shares are trading -7.58% year to date (YTD), with the 12-month market performance down to -14.81% lower. It has a 12-month low price of $10.10 and touched a high of $17.74 over the same period. ABR has an average intraday trading volume of 3.86 million shares. The stock is trading above its simple moving averages at the SMA20, SMA50, and SMA200, as the current price level is off by -5.35%, -12.76%, and -12.24% respectively.

Institutional ownership of Arbor Realty Trust Inc. (NYSE: ABR) shares accounts for 55.21% of the company’s 188.50M shares outstanding. Mutual fund holders own 33.01%, while other institutional holders and individual stakeholders account for 4.80% and 22.35% respectively.

It has a market capitalization of $2.30B and a beta (3y monthly) value of 1.95. The stock’s trailing 12-month PE ratio is 6.89, while the earnings-per-share (ttm) stands at $1.77. The company has a PEG of 0.86 and the debt-to-equity ratio at 3.95. Price movements for the stock have been influenced by the stock’s volatility, which stands at 4.48% over the week and 4.88% over the month.

Analysts forecast that Arbor Realty Trust Inc. (ABR) will achieve an EPS of $0.47 for the current quarter, $0.46 for the next quarter and $1.88 for 2024. The lowest estimate earnings-per-share for the quarter is $0.41 while analysts give the company a high EPS estimate of $0.51. Comparatively, EPS for the current quarter was $0.49 a year ago. Earnings per share for the fiscal year are expected to decrease by -2.24%, and -16.59% over the next financial year. EPS should shrink at an annualized rate of 8.00% over the next five years, compared to 8.35% over the past 5-year period.

If you are looking to buy this stock, then you may note that the average analyst recommendation by 6 brokerage firm advisors rate Arbor Realty Trust Inc. (ABR) as a “Moderate Buy” at a consensus score of 2.83. Specifically, 2 Wall Street analysts polled rate the stock as a buy, while 1 of the 6 advise that investors “hold,” and 2 rated it as a “Sell.”

Looking at the support for the ABR, a number of firms have released research notes about the stock. Piper Sandler stated their Underweight rating for the stock in a research note on July 31, 2023, with the firm’s price target at $16.

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