HollyFrontier Corporation (HFC) Volatility Spurs A Quest For Clarity


Turtle Creek Management LLC recently announced the acquisition of new stake in HollyFrontier Corporation (NYSE:HFC). The institutional investor has increased its shareholding in the Energy company by 0.01% to 12.44 million shares with purchase of 1150.0 shares. This fresh investment now brings its stake to 7.69% valued currently at $342.11 million. In addition, SSgA Funds Management, Inc. raised its holdings by 1.17 million to 11.52 million shares. And Dimensional Fund Advisors LP has lifted its position by 2.47% or 0.14 million shares – to 5.74 million shares.

With over 14.1 million HollyFrontier Corporation (HFC) shares trading Monday and a closing price of $23.87 on the day, the dollar volume was approximately $336.66 million. The shares have shown a negative weekly performance of -8.68% and its price on 08/31/20 lost nearly -7.52%. Currently, there are 161.89M common shares owned by the public and among those 160.67M shares have been available to trade.

An analysis of what Wall Street brokers have to say about the expected price targets for this stock gives us this picture: 19 analysts who have offered their price forecasts for HFC have a consensus price objective of $33.00. The analysts have set the share’s price value over the next 12 months at a high of $39.00 and a low of $20.00 should the stock experience a downside. Incidentally, analysts’ outlook for the HollyFrontier Corporation stock is 2.60 for the next 12 months. The average price target is 28.68% above its last price level and an upside to the estimated low will see the stock lose -19.35% over that period. But an upside of 38.79% will see the stock hit the forecast high price target while mean target price for the stock is $34.50.

Insiders at the company have transacted a total of 51 times over the past 12 months, according to data filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). 30 of these insider trades were purchases, accounting for 742,797 shares. Insider sales of the common stock occurred on 21 occasions, with total insider shares sold totaling 265,851 shares.

The top 3 mutual fund holders in HollyFrontier Corporation are Vanguard Total Stock Market Index, Vanguard 500 Index Fund, and Stichting Pensioenfonds ABP (Glob. Vanguard Total Stock Market Index owns 4.15 million shares of the company’s stock, all valued at over $114.15 million. The company sold 2656.0 shares recently to bring their total holdings to about 2.56% of the shares outstanding. Vanguard 500 Index Fund sold 22103.0 shares to see its total holdings shrink to 3.07 million shares valued at over $84.39 million and representing 1.90% of the shares outstanding. Stichting Pensioenfonds ABP (Glob bought 65627.0 shares to bring its total holdings to over 2.79 million shares at a value of $76.7 million. Stichting Pensioenfonds ABP (Glob now owns shares totaling to 1.72% of the shares outstanding.

Shares of HollyFrontier Corporation (NYSE: HFC) opened at $25.72, down -$0.09 from a prior closing price of $25.81. However, the script later closed the day at $23.87, down -7.52%. The company’s stock has a 5-day price change of -8.68% and -26.76% over the past three months. HFC shares are trading -52.93% year to date (YTD), with the 12-month market performance down to -46.19% lower. It has a 12-month low price of $18.48 and touched a high of $58.88 over the same period. Currently, 14.1 million shares have been traded, compared to an average intraday trading volume of 2.31 million shares. The stock is trading above its simple moving averages at the SMA20, SMA50, and SMA200, as the current price level is off by -7.73%, -12.18%, and -31.89% respectively.

Institutional ownership of HollyFrontier Corporation (NYSE: HFC) shares accounts for 88.00% of the company’s 161.89M shares outstanding. Mutual fund holders own 42.37%, while other institutional holders and individual stakeholders account for 44.88% and 2.08% respectively.

It has a market capitalization of $3.74B and a beta (3y monthly) value of 1.63. The earnings-per-share (ttm) stands at -$1.02. Price movements for the stock have been influenced by the stock’s volatility, which stands at 5.24% over the week and 5.06% over the month.

Analysts forecast that HollyFrontier Corporation (HFC) will achieve an EPS of -$0.21 for the current quarter, -$0.19 for the next quarter and $1.34 for 2021. The lowest estimate earnings-per-share for the quarter is -$0.56 while analysts give the company a high EPS estimate of $0.71. Comparatively, EPS for the current quarter was $1.68 a year ago. Earnings per share for the fiscal year are expected to decrease by -25.10%, and 738.10% over the next financial year. EPS should shrink at an annualized rate of -10.73% over the next five years, compared to 26.50% over the past 5-year period.

If you are looking to buy this stock, then you may note that the average analyst recommendation by 19 brokerage firm advisors rate HollyFrontier Corporation (HFC) as a “Moderate Buy” at a consensus score of 2.60. Specifically, 6 Wall Street analysts polled rate the stock as a buy, while 9 of the 19 advise that investors “hold,” and 2 rated it as a “Sell.”

Looking at the support for the HFC, a number of firms have released research notes about the stock. Goldman stated their Neutral rating for the stock in a research note on August 07, 2020, with the firm’s price target at. Mizuho coverage for the HollyFrontier Corporation (HFC) stock in a research note released on July 22, 2020 offered a Neutral rating with a price target of $34. Morgan Stanley was of a view on July 08, 2020 that the stock is Underweight, while Cowen gave the stock Underperform rating on June 30, 2020, issuing a price target of $22. Goldman on their part issued Sell rating on June 12, 2020.


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