Ontrak Inc. (OTRK): A Great Stock For Handling Current Market Conditions?


Nantahala Capital Management LLC recently announced the acquisition of new stake in Ontrak Inc. (NASDAQ:OTRK). The institutional investor has increased its shareholding in the Healthcare company by 112.78% to 0.42 million shares with purchase of 0.22 million shares. This fresh investment now brings its stake to 2.45% valued currently at $15.96 million. In addition, Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP raised its holdings by 0.16 million to 0.2 million shares.

With over 1.41 million Ontrak Inc. (OTRK) shares trading Friday and a closing price of $68.33 on the day, the dollar volume was approximately $96.49 million. The shares have shown a positive weekly performance of 37.82% and its price on 08/21/20 lost nearly -0.77%. Currently, there are 16.99M common shares owned by the public and among those 7.25M shares have been available to trade.

An analysis of what Wall Street brokers have to say about the expected price targets for this stock gives us this picture: 5 analysts who have offered their price forecasts for OTRK have a consensus price objective of $56.80. The analysts have set the share’s price value over the next 12 months at a high of $89.00 and a low of $30.00 should the stock experience a downside. Incidentally, analysts’ outlook for the Ontrak Inc. stock is 1.60 for the next 12 months. The average price target is -36.66% below its last price level and a downside to the estimated low will see the stock lose -127.77% over that period. But an upside of 23.22% will see the stock hit the forecast high price target while mean target price for the stock is $55.00.

Insiders at the company have transacted a total of 17 times over the past 12 months, according to data filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). 13 of these insider trades were purchases, accounting for 97,283 shares. Insider sales of the common stock occurred on 4 occasions, with total insider shares sold totaling 98,700 shares.

The top 3 mutual fund holders in Ontrak Inc. are Vanguard Total Stock Market Index, iShares Russell 2000 ETF, and WP Large Cap Income Plus Fund. Vanguard Total Stock Market Index owns 0.21 million shares of the company’s stock, all valued at over $7.87 million. WP Large Cap Income Plus Fund bought 4000.0 shares to bring its total holdings to over 0.13 million shares at a value of $5.13 million. WP Large Cap Income Plus Fund now owns shares totaling to 0.79% of the shares outstanding.

Shares of Ontrak Inc. (NASDAQ: OTRK) opened at $66.65, down -$2.21 from a prior closing price of $68.86. However, the script later closed the day at $68.33, down -0.77%. The company’s stock has a 5-day price change of 37.82% and 240.80% over the past three months. OTRK shares are trading 318.95% year to date (YTD), with the 12-month market performance up to 358.59% higher. It has a 12-month low price of $8.55 and touched a high of $79.13 over the same period. Currently, 1.41 million shares have been traded, compared to an average intraday trading volume of 558.97K shares. The stock is trading above its simple moving averages at the SMA20, SMA50, and SMA200, as the current price level is off by 44.54%, 99.87%, and 211.18% respectively.

Institutional ownership of Ontrak Inc. (NASDAQ: OTRK) shares accounts for 25.00% of the company’s 16.99M shares outstanding. Mutual fund holders own 18.29%, while other institutional holders and individual stakeholders account for 7.38% and — respectively.

It has a market capitalization of $1.19B and a beta (3y monthly) value of 2.35. The earnings-per-share (ttm) stands at -$1.86. Price movements for the stock have been influenced by the stock’s volatility, which stands at 16.60% over the week and 12.27% over the month.

Analysts forecast that Ontrak Inc. (OTRK) will achieve an EPS of -$0.3 for the current quarter, -$0.23 for the next quarter and -$0.68 for 2021. The lowest estimate earnings-per-share for the quarter is -$0.39 while analysts give the company a high EPS estimate of -$0.21. Comparatively, EPS for the current quarter was -$0.52 a year ago. Earnings per share for the fiscal year are expected to decrease by -75.50%, and 55.70% over the next financial year. EPS should grow at an annualized rate of 30.00% over the next five years, compared to 26.50% over the past 5-year period.

If you are looking to buy this stock, then you may note that the average analyst recommendation by 5 brokerage firm advisors rate Ontrak Inc. (OTRK) as a “Strong Buy” at a consensus score of 1.60. Specifically, 5 Wall Street analysts polled rate the stock as a buy, while 0 of the 5 advise that investors “hold,” and 0 rated it as a “Sell.”

Looking at the support for the OTRK, a number of firms have released research notes about the stock. Cowen stated their Outperform rating for the stock in a research note on July 16, 2020, with the firm’s price target at $36.


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