The GEO Group Inc. (NYSE: GEO) Loses -42.33% From High. Why That Could Change?


Barrow, Hanley, Mewhinney & Strau. recently announced the acquisition of new stake in The GEO Group Inc. (NYSE:GEO). The institutional investor has increased its shareholding in the Real Estate company by 8.85% to 5.78 million shares with purchase of 0.47 million shares. This fresh investment now brings its stake to 4.77% valued currently at $68.42 million. In addition, Artemis Investment Management LLP raised its holdings by 0.28 million to 5.32 million shares. And SSgA Funds Management, Inc. has lifted its position by 9.48% or 0.36 million shares – to 4.12 million shares.

With over 1.59 million The GEO Group Inc. (GEO) shares trading Friday and a closing price of $10.75 on the day, the dollar volume was approximately $17.11 million. The shares have shown a negative weekly performance of -0.65% and its price on 07/24/20 lost nearly -0.37%. Currently, there are 119.39M common shares owned by the public and among those 117.26M shares have been available to trade.

An analysis of what Wall Street brokers have to say about the expected price targets for this stock gives us this picture: 1 analysts who have offered their price forecasts for GEO have a consensus price objective of $18.00. The analysts have set the share’s price value over the next 12 months at a high of $21.00 and a low of $15.00 should the stock experience a downside. Incidentally, analysts’ outlook for the The GEO Group Inc. stock is 2.00 for the next 12 months. The average price target is 40.28% above its last price level and an upside to the estimated low will see the stock gain 28.33% over that period. But an upside of 48.81% will see the stock hit the forecast high price target while mean target price for the stock is $18.00.

Insiders at the company have transacted a total of 49 times over the past 12 months, according to data filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). 32 of these insider trades were purchases, accounting for 1,433,138 shares. Insider sales of the common stock occurred on 17 occasions, with total insider shares sold totaling 217,465 shares.

The top 3 mutual fund holders in The GEO Group Inc. are Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund, Artemis Global Income Fund, and Vanguard Total Stock Market Index. Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund owns 5.43 million shares of the company’s stock, all valued at over $64.2 million. The company bought an additional 49019.0 shares recently to bring their total holdings to about 4.47% of the shares outstanding. Vanguard Total Stock Market Index sold 42876.0 shares to bring its total holdings to over 3.27 million shares at a value of $38.66 million. Vanguard Total Stock Market Index now owns shares totaling to 2.69% of the shares outstanding.

Shares of The GEO Group Inc. (NYSE: GEO) opened at $11.10, up $0.31 from a prior closing price of $10.79. However, the script later closed the day at $10.75, down -0.37%. The company’s stock has a 5-day price change of -0.65% and -11.52% over the past three months. GEO shares are trading -35.28% year to date (YTD), with the 12-month market performance down to -34.85% lower. It has a 12-month low price of $9.95 and touched a high of $18.64 over the same period. Currently, 1.59 million shares have been traded, compared to an average intraday trading volume of 1.96 million shares. The stock is trading above its simple moving averages at the SMA20, SMA50, and SMA200, as the current price level is off by -6.37%, -10.14%, and -22.88% respectively.

Institutional ownership of The GEO Group Inc. (NYSE: GEO) shares accounts for 76.70% of the company’s 119.39M shares outstanding. Mutual fund holders own 4.30%, while other institutional holders and individual stakeholders account for 49.53% and 28.48% respectively.

It has a market capitalization of $1.34B and a beta (3y monthly) value of 1.00. The stock’s trailing 12-month PE ratio is 8.50, while the earnings-per-share (ttm) stands at $1.27. The company has a PEG of 0.57 and a Quick Ratio of 1.20 with the debt-to-equity ratio at 2.78. Price movements for the stock have been influenced by the stock’s volatility, which stands at 3.02% over the week and 3.74% over the month.

Analysts forecast that The GEO Group Inc. (GEO) will achieve an EPS of $0 for the current quarter, $0 for the next quarter and $0.98 for 2020. The lowest estimate earnings-per-share for the quarter is $0 while analysts give the company a high EPS estimate of $0. Comparatively, EPS for the current quarter was $0.31 a year ago. Earnings per share for the fiscal year are expected to increase by 16.00%, and 33.67% over the next financial year. EPS should grow at an annualized rate of 15.00% over the next five years, compared to 1.10% over the past 5-year period.

If you are looking to buy this stock, then you may note that the average analyst recommendation by 1 brokerage firm advisors rate The GEO Group Inc. (GEO) as a “Moderate Buy” at a consensus score of 2.00. Specifically, 1 Wall Street analysts polled rate the stock as a buy, while 0 of the 1 advise that investors “hold,” and 0 rated it as a “Sell.”

Looking at the support for the GEO, a number of firms have released research notes about the stock. Noble Capital Markets stated their Outperform rating for the stock in a research note on June 29, 2020, with the firm’s price target at $15. JP Morgan coverage for the The GEO Group Inc. (GEO) stock in a research note released on February 15, 2019 offered a Neutral rating with a price target of $26. JP Morgan was of a view on July 14, 2017 that the stock is Overweight, while Canaccord Genuity gave the stock Buy rating on March 08, 2017, issuing a price target of $52- $50. Canaccord Genuity on their part issued Buy rating on February 24, 2017.


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