Guess’ Inc. (GES) Volatility Spurs A Quest For Clarity

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    The Vanguard Group, Inc. recently announced the acquisition of new stake in Guess’ Inc. (NYSE:GES). The institutional investor has increased its shareholding in the Consumer Cyclical company by 0.73% to 4.45 million shares with purchase of 32150.0 shares. This fresh investment now brings its stake to 6.58% valued currently at $43.0 million. In addition, SSgA Funds Management, Inc. raised its holdings by 0.15 million to 1.75 million shares. And D. E. Shaw & Co. LP has lifted its position by 66.94% or 0.66 million shares – to 1.65 million shares.

    With over 2.71 million Guess’ Inc. (GES) shares trading Tuesday and a closing price of $10.93 on the day, the dollar volume was approximately $29.63 million. The shares have shown a positive weekly performance of 16.52% and its price on 07/21/20 gained nearly 18.29%. Currently, there are 65.72M common shares owned by the public and among those 41.61M shares have been available to trade.

    An analysis of what Wall Street brokers have to say about the expected price targets for this stock gives us this picture: 5 analysts who have offered their price forecasts for GES have a consensus price objective of $12.20. The analysts have set the share’s price value over the next 12 months at a high of $15.00 and a low of $10.00 should the stock experience a downside. Incidentally, analysts’ outlook for the Guess’ Inc. stock is 2.40 for the next 12 months. The average price target is 10.41% above its last price level and an upside to the estimated low will see the stock lose -9.3% over that period. But an upside of 27.13% will see the stock hit the forecast high price target while mean target price for the stock is $13.00.

    Insiders at the company have transacted a total of 19 times over the past 12 months, according to data filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). 15 of these insider trades were purchases, accounting for 1,227,956 shares. Insider sales of the common stock occurred on 4 occasions, with total insider shares sold totaling 106,931 shares.

    The top 3 mutual fund holders in Guess’ Inc. are Fidelity Series Intrinsic Opportu, Fidelity Low Priced Stock Fund, and iShares Core S&P Small Cap ETF. Fidelity Series Intrinsic Opportu owns 4.6 million shares of the company’s stock, all valued at over $44.48 million. The company sold -0.24 million shares recently to bring their total holdings to about 6.80% of the shares outstanding. Fidelity Low Priced Stock Fund sold 58238.0 shares to see its total holdings shrink to 3.95 million shares valued at over $38.18 million and representing 5.84% of the shares outstanding. iShares Core S&P Small Cap ETF now owns shares totaling to 3.98% of the shares outstanding.

    Shares of Guess’ Inc. (NYSE: GES) opened at $9.84, up $0.6 from a prior closing price of $9.24. However, the script later closed the day at $10.93, up 18.29%. The company’s stock has a 5-day price change of 16.52% and 47.50% over the past three months. GES shares are trading -51.16% year to date (YTD), with the 12-month market performance down to -34.31% lower. It has a 12-month low price of $3.64 and touched a high of $23.58 over the same period. Currently, 2.71 million shares have been traded, compared to an average intraday trading volume of 1.65 million shares. The stock is trading above its simple moving averages at the SMA20, SMA50, and SMA200, as the current price level is off by 13.67%, 14.50%, and -25.00% respectively.

    Institutional ownership of Guess’ Inc. (NYSE: GES) shares accounts for 69.70% of the company’s 65.72M shares outstanding. Mutual fund holders own 44.42%, while other institutional holders and individual stakeholders account for 45.89% and 24.96% respectively.

    It has a market capitalization of $783.57M and a beta (3y monthly) value of 1.69. The earnings-per-share (ttm) stands at -$0.69. Price movements for the stock have been influenced by the stock’s volatility, which stands at 7.29% over the week and 6.63% over the month.

    Analysts forecast that Guess’ Inc. (GES) will achieve an EPS of -$0.57 for the current quarter, $0.05 for the next quarter and $1.13 for 2022. The lowest estimate earnings-per-share for the quarter is -$0.76 while analysts give the company a high EPS estimate of -$0.33. Comparatively, EPS for the current quarter was $0.38 a year ago. Earnings per share for the fiscal year are expected to increase by 454.10%, and 198.30% over the next financial year. EPS should grow at an annualized rate of 4.40% over the next five years, compared to 3.70% over the past 5-year period.

    Looking at the support for the GES, a number of firms have released research notes about the stock. Telsey Advisory Group stated their Market Perform rating for the stock in a research note on June 08, 2020, with the firm’s price target at $7-$14. Cowen coverage for the Guess’ Inc. (GES) stock in a research note released on March 24, 2020 offered a Market Perform rating with a price target of $8. Telsey Advisory Group was of a view on March 19, 2020 that the stock is Market Perform, while Cowen gave the stock Outperform rating on December 17, 2019, issuing a price target of $19- $26. Telsey Advisory Group on their part issued Market Perform rating on April 23, 2019.

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